Joseph Fishkin

Low variance = low risk

Inspired by Joseph Fishkin’s book, “Bottlenecks: A New Theory of Equal Opportunity”

When organisations define equal opportunity as applying exactly the same criteria to everyone, they often overlook an important reality: a narrow set of criteria tends to reward the small percentage of people who are already best positioned to succeed within that system. The result is that many talented individuals, whose strengths may not align perfectly with those predefined measures, remain overlooked.

If organisations genuinely want diversity of thought, background, and potential, they need to rethink how opportunity is structured. One powerful approach is hiring in groups rather than treating every hire as a high-risk individual decision. When organisations hire only one person, the mindset often becomes: “Let us choose the safest option and hope nothing goes wrong.” This naturally favours familiarity, predictability, and low-risk choices. Yet innovation, inclusion, and long-term organisational growth rarely emerge from repeatedly selecting the lowest-variance option. Expanding opportunity requires creating systems that recognise broader forms of talent, capability, and potential.